The Winning Bet

Leading up to the release of Professor Joe DiMasi’s latest study of the cost of drug development, KEI offered $50 to the individual who could most accurately predict the new cost for drug R&D.

We received 26 guesses, ranging from $1.157 billion to $5 billion.

Joel Lexchin’s estimate ($2.47 billion) was the closest to DiMasi’s number ($2.558 billion). It was also the 5th largest estimate.

A complete list of submissions is below.

Name & Guess
Charles Clift – 1.157 billion
Nicole H – 1.2 billion
Ronald Rader – 1.55 billion
Wouter Deelder – 1.655 billion
Gaelle Krikorian – 1.705 billion
Maryam – 1.75 billion
Mohga Kamal-Yanni – 1.8 billion
Robert Weissman – 1.826 billion
Aaron Kesslheim – 1.95 billion
Patrick Durisch – 1.97 billion
Matthew Flynn – 2 billion
Thomas Pogge – 2.015 billion
Ruth Lopert – 2.1 billion
MIchael Davis – 2.12 billion
Aidan Hollis – 2.17 billion
Elizabeth Rajasingh – 2.19 billion
Ellen ‘t Hoen – 2.2 billion
Claire Cassedy – 2.2 billion
Malini Aisola – 2.3 billion
Manon Ress – 2.355 billion
Kevin OUtterson – 2.44 billion
Joel Lexchin – 2.47 billion
Swaraj Barooah – 2.72 billion**Twitter
Richard Laing – 2.85 bilion**Technical problem
Matt Price – 3 billion
Katy Athersuch – 5 billion