From Merck’s 10-K report, section on Risk Factors, for fiscal year ended December 31, 2012.
Number of words in Item 1A: 8038
Compulsory licenses: 44
Item 1A.Risk Factors.
Investors should carefully consider all of the information set forth in this Form 10-K, including the following risk factors, before deciding to invest in any of the Company’s securities. The risks below are not the only ones the Company faces. Additional risks not currently known to the Company or that the Company presently deems immaterial may also impair its business operations. The Company’s business, financial condition, results of operations or prospects could be materially adversely affected by any of these risks. This Form 10-K also contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The Company’s results could materially differ from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of certain factors, including the risks it faces described below and elsewhere. See “Cautionary Factors that May Affect Future Results” below.
Singulair and Maxalt lost market exclusivity in the United States in 2012, and the Company is experiencing a significant decline in sales of those products. In addition, Singulair and Maxalt will each lose market exclusivity in the EU in 2013 and the Company expects a significant decline in sales of those products in these markets.
The Company depends upon patents to provide it with exclusive marketing rights for its products for some period of time. As product patents for several of the Company’s products have recently expired in the United States and in other countries, the Company faces strong competition from lower priced generic drugs. Loss of patent protection for one of the Company’s products typically leads to a rapid loss of sales for that product, as lower priced generic versions of that drug become available. In the case of products that contribute significantly to the Company’s sales, the loss of patent protection can have a material adverse effect on the Company’s business, cash flow, results of operations, financial position and prospects. The patent that provided U.S. market exclusivity for Singulair, which in 2012 was the Company’s second largest selling product globally, and which had U.S. sales of $2.2 billion, expired in August 2012. Accordingly, the Company experienced a significant and rapid decline in U.S. Singulair sales, which declined 97% in the fourth quarter of 2012 to $25 million as compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. The patent that provided market exclusivity for Singulair expired in a number of major European markets in February 2013 and the Company expects a significant and rapid decline in sales of Singulair in those markets. The patent that provided U.S. market exclusivity for Maxalt expired in December 2012. Also, the patent that provides market exclusivity for Maxalt will expire in a number of major European markets in August 2013. The Company anticipates that sales in the United States, which were approximately $491 million in 2012, and in these European markets will decline significantly as a result of these patent expiries. Also, two additional Company products, Temodar and Propecia, will lose market exclusivity in the United States in 2013 and the Company anticipates that sales will decline significantly.
A chart listing the U.S. patent protection for the Company’s major marketed products is set forth above in Item 1. “Business — Patents, Trademarks and Licenses.”
The Company is dependent on its patent rights, and if its patent rights are invalidated or circumvented, its business would be adversely affected.
Patent protection is considered, in the aggregate, to be of material importance in the Company’s marketing of human health products in the United States and in most major foreign markets. Patents covering products that it has introduced normally provide market exclusivity, which is important for the successful marketing and sale of its products. The Company seeks patents covering each of its products in each of the markets where it intends to sell the products and where meaningful patent protection is available.
Even if the Company succeeds in obtaining patents covering its products, third parties or government authorities may challenge or seek to invalidate or circumvent its patents and patent applications. It is important for the Company’s business to defend successfully the patent rights that provide market exclusivity for its products. The Company is often involved in patent disputes relating to challenges to its patents or infringement and similar claims against the Company. The Company aggressively defends its important patents both within and outside the United States, including by filing claims of infringement against other parties. See Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data,” Note 11. “Contingencies and Environmental Liabilities” below. In particular, manufacturers of generic pharmaceutical products from time to time file Abbreviated New Drug Applications with the FDA seeking to market generic forms of the Company’s products prior to the expiration of relevant patents owned by the Company. The Company normally responds by vigorously defending its patent, including by filing lawsuits alleging patent infringement. As discussed above, in 2012, a court decision found that a proposed generic product by a generic manufacturer would not infringe on the Company’s Nasonex formulation patent. If the generic manufacturer’s application is approved by the FDA, it can enter the market in the United States with a generic version of Nasonex which would adversely affect sales of Nasonex. Patent litigation and other challenges to the Company’s patents are costly and unpredictable and may deprive the Company of market exclusivity for a patented product or, in some cases, third-party patents may prevent the Company from marketing and selling a product in a particular geographic area.
Additionally, certain foreign governments have indicated that compulsory licenses to patents may be granted in the case of national emergencies or in other circumstances, which could diminish or eliminate sales and profits from those regions and negatively affect the Company’s results of operations. Further, recent court decisions relating to other companies’ U.S. patents, potential U.S. legislation relating to patent reform, as well as regulatory initiatives may result in further erosion of intellectual property protection.
If one or more important products lose patent protection in profitable markets, sales of those products are likely to decline significantly as a result of generic versions of those products becoming available and, in the case of certain products, such a loss could result in a material non-cash impairment charge. The Company’s results of operations may be adversely affected by the lost sales unless and until the Company has successfully launched commercially successful replacement products.
Key Company products generate a significant amount of the Company’s profits and cash flows, and any events that adversely affect the markets for its leading products could have a material and negative impact on results of operations and cash flows.
The Company’s ability to generate profits and operating cash flow depends largely upon the continued profitability of the Company’s key products, such as Januvia, Remicade, Zetia, Vytorin, Janumet, Isentress, Nasonex and Gardasil. As a result of the Company’s dependence on key products, any event that adversely affects any of these products or the markets for any of these products could have a significant impact on results of operations and cash flows. These events could include loss of patent protection, increased costs associated with manufacturing, generic or over-the-counter availability of the Company’s product or a competitive product, the discovery of previously unknown side effects, increased competition from the introduction of new, more effective treatments and discontinuation or removal from the market of the product for any reason. If any of these events had a material adverse effect on the sales of certain products, such an event could result in a material non-cash impairment charge.
The Company’s research and development efforts may not succeed in developing commercially successful products and the Company may not be able to acquire commercially successful products in other ways; in consequence, the Company may not be able to replace sales of successful products that have lost patent protection.
Like other major pharmaceutical companies, in order to remain competitive, the Company must continue to launch new products each year. Expected declines in sales of products, such as Singulair and Maxalt, after the loss of market exclusivity mean that the Company’s future success is dependent on its pipeline of new products, including new products which it may develop through joint ventures and products which it is able to obtain through license or acquisition. To accomplish this, the Company commits substantial effort, funds and other resources to research and development, both through its own dedicated resources and through various collaborations with third parties. There is a high rate of failure inherent in the research to develop new drugs to treat diseases. As a result, there is a high risk that funds invested by the Company in research programs will not generate financial returns.
This risk profile is compounded by the fact that this research has a long investment cycle. To bring a pharmaceutical compound from the discovery phase to market may take a decade or more and failure can occur at any point in the process, including later in the process after significant funds have been invested.
For a description of the research and development process, see Item 1. “Business — Research and Development” above. Each phase of testing is highly regulated and during each phase there is a substantial risk that the Company will encounter serious obstacles or will not achieve its goals, therefore, the Company may abandon a product in which it has invested substantial amounts of time and resources. Some of the risks encountered in the research and development process include the following: pre-clinical testing of a new compound may yield disappointing results; clinical trials of a new drug may not be successful; a new drug may not be effective or may have harmful side effects; a new drug may not be approved by the FDA for its intended use; it may not be possible to obtain a patent for a new drug; payers may refuse to cover or reimburse the new product; or sales of a new product may be disappointing.
The Company cannot state with certainty when or whether any of its products now under development will be approved or launched; whether it will be able to develop, license or otherwise acquire compounds, product candidates or products; or whether any products, once launched, will be commercially successful. The Company must maintain a continuous flow of successful new products and successful new indications or brand extensions for existing products sufficient both to cover its substantial research and development costs and to replace sales that are lost as profitable products, such as Singulair and Maxalt in 2012 and Temodar and Propecia in 2013, lose market exclusivity or are displaced by competing products or therapies. Failure to do so in the short term or long term would have a material adverse effect on the Company’s business, results of operations, cash flow, financial position and prospects.
The Company’s success is dependent on the successful development and marketing of new products, which are subject to substantial risks.
Products that appear promising in development may fail to reach the market or fail to succeed for numerous reasons, including the following:
•findings of ineffectiveness, superior safety or efficacy of competing products, or harmful side effects in clinical or pre-clinical testing;
•failure to receive the necessary regulatory approvals, including delays in the approval of new products and new indications, and increasing uncertainties about the time required to obtain regulatory approvals and the benefit/risk standards applied by regulatory agencies in determining whether to grant approvals;
•failure in certain markets to obtain reimbursement commensurate with the level of innovation and clinical benefit presented by the product;
•lack of economic feasibility due to manufacturing costs or other factors; and
•preclusion from commercialization by the proprietary rights of others.
In the future, if certain pipeline programs are cancelled or if the Company believes that their commercial prospects have been reduced, the Company may recognize material non-cash impairment charges for those programs that were measured at fair value and capitalized in connection with mergers and acquisitions.
The Company’s products, including products in development, can not be marketed unless the Company obtains and maintains regulatory approval.
The Company’s activities, including research, preclinical testing, clinical trials and manufacturing and marketing its products, are subject to extensive regulation by numerous federal, state and local governmental authorities in the United States, including the FDA, and by foreign regulatory authorities, including in the EU. In the United States, the FDA is of particular importance to the Company, as it administers requirements covering the testing, approval, safety, effectiveness, manufacturing, labeling and marketing of prescription pharmaceuticals. In many cases, the FDA requirements have increased the amount of time and money necessary to develop new products and bring them to market in the United States. Regulation outside the United States also is primarily focused on drug safety and effectiveness and, in many cases, cost reduction. The FDA and foreign regulatory authorities have substantial discretion to require additional testing, to delay or withhold registration and marketing approval and to otherwise preclude distribution and sale of a product.
Even if the Company is successful in developing new products, it will not be able to market any of those products unless and until it has obtained all required regulatory approvals in each jurisdiction where it proposes to market the new products. Once obtained, the Company must maintain approval as long as it plans to market its new products in each jurisdiction where approval is required. The Company’s failure to obtain approval, significant delays in the approval process, or its failure to maintain approval in any jurisdiction will prevent it from selling the new products in that jurisdiction until approval is obtained, if ever. The Company would not be able to realize revenues for those new products in any jurisdiction where it does not have approval.
Developments following regulatory approval may adversely affect sales of the Company’s products.
Even after a product reaches market, certain developments following regulatory approval, including results in post-marketing Phase IV trials or other studies, may decrease demand for the Company’s products, including the following:
•the re-review of products that are already marketed;
•new scientific information and evolution of scientific theories;
•the recall or loss of marketing approval of products that are already marketed;
•changing government standards or public expectations regarding safety, efficacy or labeling changes; and
•greater scrutiny in advertising and promotion.
In the past several years, clinical trials and post-marketing surveillance of certain marketed drugs of the Company and of competitors within the industry have raised concerns that have led to recalls, withdrawals or adverse labeling of marketed products. Clinical trials and post-marketing surveillance of certain marketed drugs also have raised concerns among some prescribers and patients relating to the safety or efficacy of pharmaceutical products in general that have negatively affected the sales of such products. In addition, increased scrutiny of the outcomes of clinical trials has led to increased volatility in market reaction. Further, these matters often attract litigation and, even where the basis for the litigation is groundless, considerable resources may be needed to respond.
In addition, following the wake of product withdrawals and other significant safety issues, health authorities such as the FDA, the EMA and Japan’s Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Agency have increased their focus on safety when assessing the benefit/risk balance of drugs. Some health authorities appear to have become more cautious when making decisions about approvability of new products or indications and are re-reviewing select products that are already marketed, adding further to the uncertainties in the regulatory processes. There is also greater regulatory scrutiny, especially in the United States, on advertising and promotion and, in particular, direct-to-consumer advertising.
If previously unknown side effects are discovered or if there is an increase in negative publicity regarding known side effects of any of the Company’s products, it could significantly reduce demand for the product or require the Company to take actions that could negatively affect sales, including removing the product from the market, restricting its distribution or applying for labeling changes. Further, in the current environment in which all pharmaceutical companies operate, the Company is at risk for product liability and consumer protection claims and civil and criminal governmental actions related to its products, research and/or marketing activities.
The Company faces intense competition from lower cost-generic products.
In general, the Company faces increasing competition from lower-cost generic products. The patent rights that protect its products are of varying strengths and durations. In addition, in some countries, patent protection is significantly weaker than in the United States or in the EU. In the United States and the EU, political pressure to reduce spending on prescription drugs has led to legislation and other measures which encourages the use of generic products. Although it is the Company’s policy to actively protect its patent rights, generic challenges to the Company’s products can arise at any time, and the Company’s patents may not prevent the emergence of generic competition for its products.
Loss of patent protection for a product typically is followed promptly by generic substitutes, reducing the Company’s sales of that product. Availability of generic substitutes for the Company’s drugs may adversely affect its results of operations and cash flow. In addition, proposals emerge from time to time in the United States and other countries for legislation to further encourage the early and rapid approval of generic drugs. Any such proposal that is enacted into law could worsen this substantial negative effect on the Company’s sales and, potentially, its business, cash flow, results of operations, financial position and prospects.
The Company faces intense competition from competitors’ products which, in addition to other factors, could in certain circumstances lead to non-cash impairment charges.
The Company’s products face intense competition from competitors’ products. This competition may increase as new products enter the market. In such an event, the competitors’ products may be safer or more effective, more convenient to use or more effectively marketed and sold than the Company’s products. Alternatively, in the case of generic competition, including the generic availability of competitors’ branded products, they may be equally safe and effective products that are sold at a substantially lower price than the Company’s products. As a result, if the Company fails to maintain its competitive position, this could have a material adverse effect on its business, cash flow, results of operations, financial position and prospects. In addition, if products that were measured at fair value and capitalized in connection with mergers and acquisitions, such as Saphris, or former Merck/Schering Plough Partnership products, Vytorin or Zetia, experience difficulties in the market that negatively impact product cash flows, the Company may recognize material non-cash impairment charges with respect to the value of those products.
The Company faces pricing pressure with respect to its products.
The Company faces increasing pricing pressure globally from managed care organizations, government agencies and programs that could negatively affect the Company’s sales and profit margins. In the United States, these include (i) practices of managed care groups and institutional and governmental purchasers, and (ii) U.S. federal laws and regulations related to Medicare and Medicaid, including the Medicare Prescription Drug Improvement and Modernization Act of 2003 and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010. Changes to the health care system enacted as part of health care reform in the United States, as well as increased purchasing power of entities that negotiate on behalf of Medicare, Medicaid, and private sector beneficiaries, could result in further pricing pressures. In addition, the Company faces the risk of litigation with the government over its pricing calculations.
Outside the United States, numerous major markets, including the EU, have pervasive government involvement in funding health care and, in that regard, fix the pricing and reimbursement of pharmaceutical and vaccine products. Consequently, in those markets, the Company is subject to government decision making and budgetary actions with respect to its products.
The Company expects pricing pressures to increase in the future.
The health care industry in the United States will continue to be subject to increasing regulation and political action.
The Company believes that the health care industry will continue to be subject to increasing regulation as well as political and legal action, as future proposals to reform the health care system are considered by Congress and state legislatures. In 2010, major health care reform was adopted into law in the United States.
Important market reforms have begun and will continue through full implementation in 2014. The new law is expected to expand access to health care to more than 32 million Americans by the end of the decade. In 2012, Merck incurred additional costs as a result of the law, including increased Medicaid rebates and other impacts that reduced revenues. In 2010, the minimum rebate to states participating in the Medicaid program increased from 15.1% to 23.1% on the Company’s branded prescription drugs; the Medicaid rebate was extended to Medicaid Managed Care Organizations; and eligibility for the federal 340B drug discount program was extended to rural referral centers, sole community hospitals, critical access hospitals, certain free standing cancer hospitals, and certain additional children’s hospitals.
In addition, the law requires pharmaceutical manufacturers to pay a 50% point of service discount to Medicare Part D beneficiaries when they are in the Medicare Part D coverage gap (i.e., the so-called “donut hole”). Approximately $210 million and $150 million was recorded by Merck as a reduction to revenue in 2012 and 2011, respectively, related to the donut hole provision. Also, the Company is required to pay an annual health care reform fee, which is assessed on all branded prescription drug manufacturers and importers. The fee is calculated based on the industry’s total sales of branded prescription drugs to specified government programs. The percentage of a manufacturer’s sales that are included is determined by a tiered scale based on the manufacturer’s individual revenues. Each manufacturer’s portion of the total annual fee is based on the manufacturer’s proportion of the total includable sales in the prior year. The annual industry fee for 2012 was $2.8 billion and will be $2.8 billion in 2013. The Company recorded $190 million and $162 million of costs within Marketing and administrative expenses in 2012 and 2011, respectively, for the annual health care reform fee.
The Company cannot predict the likelihood of future changes in the health care industry in general, or the pharmaceutical industry in particular, or what impact they may have on the Company’s results of operations, financial condition or business.
The current uncertainty in global economic conditions together with austerity measures being taken by certain governments could negatively affect the Company’s operating results.
The current uncertainty in global economic conditions may result in a further slowdown to the global economy that could affect the Company’s business by reducing the prices that drug wholesalers and retailers, hospitals, government agencies and managed health care providers may be able or willing to pay for the Company’s products or by reducing the demand for the Company’s products, which could in turn negatively impact the Company’s sales and result in a material adverse effect on the Company’s business, cash flow, results of operations, financial position and prospects.
Global efforts toward health care cost containment continue to exert pressure on product pricing and market access worldwide. In many international markets, government-mandated pricing actions have reduced prices of generic and patented drugs. In addition, other austerity measures negatively affected the Company’s revenue performance in 2012. The Company anticipates these pricing actions and other austerity measures will continue to negatively affect revenue performance in 2013.
The Company continues to monitor the credit and economic conditions within Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal, among other members of the EU. These economic conditions, as well as inherent variability of timing of cash receipts, have resulted in, and may continue to result in, an increase in the average length of time that it takes to collect on the accounts receivable outstanding in these countries and may also impact the likelihood of collecting 100% of outstanding accounts receivable. As of December 31, 2012, the Company’s accounts receivable in Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal totaled approximately $1.1 billion. Of this amount, hospital and public sector receivables were approximately $800 million in the aggregate, of which approximately 18%, 37%, 36% and 9% related to Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, respectively. As of December 31, 2012, the Company’s total accounts receivable outstanding for more than one year were approximately $200 million, of which approximately 70% related to accounts receivable in Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, mostly comprised of hospital and public sector receivables.
If the conditions in Europe worsen and one or more countries in the euro zone exits the euro zone and reintroduces its legacy currency, the resulting economic and currency impacts in the affected markets and globally could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s results.
The Company has significant global operations, which expose it to additional risks, and any adverse event could have a material negative impact on the Company’s results of operations.
The extent of the Company’s operations outside the United States are significant. Risks inherent in conducting a global business include:
•changes in medical reimbursement policies and programs and pricing restrictions in key markets;
•multiple regulatory requirements that could restrict the Company’s ability to manufacture and sell its products in key markets;
•trade protection measures and import or export licensing requirements;
•foreign exchange fluctuations;
•diminished protection of intellectual property in some countries; and
•possible nationalization and expropriation.
In addition, there may be changes to the Company’s business and political position if there is instability, disruption or destruction in a significant geographic region, regardless of cause, including war, terrorism, riot, civil insurrection or social unrest; and natural or man-made disasters, including famine, flood, fire, earthquake, storm or disease.
The Company has experienced difficulties and delays in manufacturing of certain of its products.
As previously disclosed, Merck has, in the past, experienced difficulties in manufacturing certain of its vaccines and other products. Similarly, the Company has, in the past, experienced difficulties manufacturing certain of its animal health products and is currently experiencing difficulty manufacturing certain women’s health products. The Company is working on its manufacturing issues, but there can be no assurance of when or if these issues will be finally resolved.
In addition to the difficulties that the Company is experiencing currently, the Company may experience difficulties and delays inherent in manufacturing its products, such as (i) failure of the Company or any of its vendors or suppliers to comply with Current Good Manufacturing Practices and other applicable regulations and quality assurance guidelines that could lead to manufacturing shutdowns, product shortages and delays in product manufacturing; (ii) construction delays related to the construction of new facilities or the expansion of existing facilities, including those intended to support future demand for the Company’s products; and (iii) other manufacturing or distribution problems including changes in manufacturing production sites and limits to manufacturing capacity due to regulatory requirements, changes in types of products produced, or physical limitations that could impact continuous supply. Manufacturing difficulties can result in product shortages, leading to lost sales.
The Company faces significant litigation related to Vioxx.
On September 30, 2004, Merck voluntarily withdrew Vioxx, its arthritis and acute pain medication, from the market worldwide. Although Merck has settled the major portion of the U.S. Product Liability litigation, the Company still faces material litigation arising from the voluntary withdrawal of Vioxx.
In addition to the Vioxx Product Liability Lawsuits and lawsuits from certain states that did not participate in a previously-disclosed settlement, various purported class actions and individual lawsuits have been brought against Merck and several current and former officers and directors of Merck alleging that Merck made false and misleading statements regarding Vioxx in violation of the federal securities laws and state laws (all of these suits are referred to as the “Vioxx Securities Lawsuits”). The Vioxx Securities Lawsuits have been transferred by the Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation (the “JPML”) to the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey before District Judge Stanley R. Chesler for inclusion in a nationwide MDL (the “Shareholder MDL”), and have been consolidated for all purposes. Merck has also been named as a defendant in actions in various countries outside the United States. (All of these suits are referred to as the “Vioxx International Lawsuits”.)
The Vioxx litigation is discussed more fully in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data,” Note 11. “Contingencies and Environmental Liabilities” below. The Company believes that it has meritorious defenses to the Vioxx Product Liability Lawsuits, Vioxx Securities Lawsuits and Vioxx International Lawsuits (collectively, the “Vioxx Lawsuits”) and will vigorously defend against them. The Company’s insurance coverage with respect to the Vioxx Lawsuits will not be adequate to cover its defense costs and any losses.
The Company is not currently able to estimate any additional amounts that it may be required to pay in connection with the Vioxx Lawsuits. These proceedings are still expected to continue for years and the Company cannot predict the course the proceedings will take. In view of the inherent difficulty of predicting the outcome of litigation, particularly where there are many claimants and the claimants seek unspecified damages, the Company is unable to predict the outcome of these matters, and at this time cannot reasonably estimate the possible loss or range of loss with respect to the remaining Vioxx Lawsuits. The Company has not established any material reserves for any potential liability relating to the remaining Vioxx Lawsuits although it has established reserves related to the settlement of the Canadian Vioxx litigation and with respect to certain other Vioxx Product Liability Lawsuits, including a previously-disclosed settlement relating to a lawsuit brought by a class of Missouri plaintiffs, all of which are discussed in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data,” Note 11. “Contingencies and Environmental Liabilities” below.
A series of unfavorable outcomes in the Vioxx Lawsuits resulting in the payment of substantial damages could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s business, cash flow, results of operations, financial position and prospects.
Issues concerning Vytorin and the ENHANCE clinical trial have had an adverse effect on sales of Vytorin and Zetia in the United States and results from the IMPROVE-IT trial could have a material adverse effect on such sales.
The Company sells Vytorin and Zetia. As previously disclosed, in January 2008, the Company announced the results of the ENHANCE clinical trial, an imaging trial in 720 patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, a rare genetic condition that causes very high levels of LDL “bad” cholesterol and greatly increases the risk for premature coronary artery disease. As previously reported, despite the fact that ezetimibe/simvastatin 10/80 mg (Vytorin) significantly lowered LDL “bad” cholesterol more than simvastatin 80 mg alone, there was no significant difference between treatment with ezetimibe/simvastatin and simvastatin alone on the pre-specified primary endpoint, a change in the thickness of carotid artery walls over two years as measured by ultrasound. The IMPROVE-IT trial is underway and is designed to provide cardiovascular outcomes data for ezetimibe/simvastatin in patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome. No incremental benefit of ezetimibe/simvastatin on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality over and above that demonstrated for simvastatin has been established. In January 2009, the FDA announced that it had completed its review of the final clinical study report of ENHANCE. The FDA stated that the results from ENHANCE did not change its position that elevated LDL cholesterol is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and that lowering LDL cholesterol reduces the risk for cardiovascular disease.
The IMPROVE-IT trial is scheduled for completion in 2014. In the IMPROVE-IT trial, blinded interim efficacy analyses were conducted by the DSMB for the trial when approximately 50% and 75% of the endpoints were accrued, respectively. In each case, the DSMB recommended continuing the trial without change in design. At the time of the second interim efficacy analysis, the DSMB stated it planned to review the data again in approximately nine months; that review has been scheduled for March 2013, at which point nine months of additional data will have been adjudicated. If, based on the results of that review, the trial were to be halted because of concerns related to Vytorin, that could have a material adverse effect on sales of Vytorin and Zetia.
These issues concerning the ENHANCE clinical trial have had an adverse effect on sales of Vytorin and Zetia and could continue to have an adverse effect on such sales. If the results of the IMPROVE-IT trial fail to demonstrate an incremental benefit of ezetimibe/simvastatin on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality over and above that demonstrated for simvastatin, sales of Zetia and Vytorin could be materially adversely affected. If sales of such products are materially adversely affected, the Company’s business, cash flow, results of operations, financial position and prospects could also be materially adversely affected and the Company could be required to record a material non-cash impairment charge.
The Company may not be able to realize the expected benefits of its investments in emerging markets.
The Company has been taking steps to increase its presence in emerging markets. However, there is no guarantee that the Company’s efforts to expand sales in emerging markets will succeed. Some countries within emerging markets may be especially vulnerable to periods of global financial instability or may have very limited resources to spend on health care. In order for the Company to successfully implement its emerging markets strategy, it must attract and retain qualified personnel. The Company may also be required to increase its reliance on third-party agents within less developed markets. In addition, many of these countries have currencies that fluctuate substantially and if such currencies devalue and the Company cannot offset the devaluations, the Company’s financial performance within such countries could be adversely affected.
For instance, in February 2013, the Venezuelan government devalued its currency. As a result of that devaluation, the Company will recognize losses due to exchange.
For all these reasons, sales within emerging markets carry significant risks. However, a failure to continue to expand the Company’s business in emerging markets could have a material adverse effect on the business, financial condition or results of the Company’s operations.
The Company is exposed to market risk from fluctuations in currency exchange rates and interest rates.
The Company operates in multiple jurisdictions and, as such, virtually all sales are denominated in currencies of the local jurisdiction. Additionally, the Company has entered and will enter into acquisition, licensing, borrowings or other financial transactions that may give rise to currency and interest rate exposure.
Since the Company cannot, with certainty, foresee and mitigate against such adverse fluctuations, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and interest rates could negatively affect the Company’s results of operations, financial position and cash flows.
In order to mitigate against the adverse impact of these market fluctuations, the Company will from time to time enter into hedging agreements. While hedging agreements, such as currency options and interest rate swaps, may limit some of the exposure to exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations, such attempts to mitigate these risks may be costly and not always successful.
The Company is subject to evolving and complex tax laws, which may result in additional liabilities that may affect results of operations.
The Company is subject to evolving and complex tax laws in the jurisdictions in which it operates. Significant judgment is required for determining the Company’s tax liabilities, and the Company’s tax returns are periodically examined by various tax authorities. The Company believes that its accrual for tax contingencies is adequate for all open years based on past experience, interpretations of tax law, and judgments about potential actions by tax authorities; however, due to the complexity of tax contingencies, the ultimate resolution of any tax matters may result in payments greater or less than amounts accrued.
In February 2012, President Obama’s administration re-proposed significant changes to the U.S. international tax laws, including changes that would tax companies on “excess returns” attributable to certain offshore intangible assets, limit U.S. tax deductions for expenses related to un-repatriated foreign-source income and modify the U.S. foreign tax credit rules. Other potentially significant changes to the U.S. international laws, including a move toward a territorial tax system, have been set out by various Congressional committees. The Company cannot determine whether these proposals will be enacted into law or what, if any, changes may be made to such proposals prior to their being enacted into law. If these or other changes to the U.S. international tax laws are enacted, they could have a significant impact on the financial results of the Company.
In addition, the Company may be affected by changes in tax laws, including tax rate changes, changes to the laws related to the remittance of foreign earnings (deferral), or other limitations impacting the U.S. tax treatment of foreign earnings, new tax laws, and revised tax law interpretations in domestic and foreign jurisdictions.
Pharmaceutical products can develop unexpected safety or efficacy concerns.
Unexpected safety or efficacy concerns can arise with respect to marketed products, whether or not scientifically justified, leading to product recalls, withdrawals, or declining sales, as well as product liability, consumer fraud and/or other claims, including potential civil or criminal governmental actions.
Changes in laws and regulations could adversely affect the Company’s business.
All aspects of the Company’s business, including research and development, manufacturing, marketing, pricing, sales, litigation and intellectual property rights, are subject to extensive legislation and regulation. Changes in applicable federal and state laws and agency regulations could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s business.
Reliance on third party relationships and outsourcing arrangements could adversely affect the Company’s business.
The Company depends on third parties, including suppliers, alliances with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, and third party service providers, for key aspects of its business including development, manufacture and commercialization of its products and support for its information technology systems. Failure of these third parties to meet their contractual, regulatory and other obligations to the Company or the development of factors that materially disrupt the relationships between the Company and these third parties could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s business.
The Company is increasingly dependent on sophisticated information technology and infrastructure.
The Company is increasingly dependent on sophisticated information technology and infrastructure. The size and complexity of the Company’s computer systems makes them potentially vulnerable to service interruption, malicious intrusion and random attacks. In addition, data privacy or security breaches by employees or others may pose a risk that data, including intellectual property or personal information, may be exposed to unauthorized individuals or to the public. There can be no assurance that the Company’s efforts to protect its data and systems will prevent service interruption or the loss of critical or sensitive information which could result in financial, legal, business or reputational harm to the Company.
Negative events in the animal health industry could have a negative impact on future results of operations.
Future sales of key animal health products could be adversely affected by a number of risk factors including certain risks that are specific to the animal health business. For example, the outbreak of disease carried by animals, such as Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy or mad cow disease, could lead to their widespread death and precautionary destruction as well as the reduced consumption and demand for animals, which could adversely impact the Company’s results of operations. Also, the outbreak of any highly contagious diseases near the Company’s main production sites could require the Company to immediately halt production of vaccines at such sites or force the Company to incur substantial expenses in procuring raw materials or vaccines elsewhere. Other risks specific to animal health include epidemics and pandemics, government procurement and pricing practices, weather and global agribusiness economic events. As the Animal Health segment of the Company’s business becomes more significant, the impact of any such events on future results of operations would also become more significant.
Biologics carry unique risks and uncertainties, which could have a negative impact on future results of operations.
The successful development, testing, manufacturing and commercialization of biologics, particularly human and animal health vaccines, is a long, expensive and uncertain process. There are unique risks and uncertainties with biologics, including:
•There may be limited access to and supply of normal and diseased tissue samples, cell lines, pathogens, bacteria, viral strains and other biological materials. In addition, government regulations in multiple jurisdictions, such as the United States and the EU, could result in restricted access to, or transport or use of, such materials. If the Company loses access to sufficient sources of such materials, or if tighter restrictions are imposed on the use of such materials, the Company may not be able to conduct research activities as planned and may incur additional development costs.
•The development, manufacturing and marketing of biologics are subject to regulation by the FDA, the EMA and other regulatory bodies. These regulations are often more complex and extensive than the regulations applicable to other pharmaceutical products. For example, in the United States, a BLA, including both preclinical and clinical trial data and extensive data regarding the manufacturing procedures, is required for human vaccine candidates and FDA approval is required for the release of each manufactured commercial lot.
•Manufacturing biologics, especially in large quantities, is often complex and may require the use of innovative technologies to handle living micro-organisms. Each lot of an approved biologic must undergo thorough testing for identity, strength, quality, purity and potency. Manufacturing biologics requires facilities specifically designed for and validated for this purpose, and sophisticated quality assurance and quality control procedures are necessary. Slight deviations anywhere in the manufacturing process, including filling, labeling, packaging, storage and shipping and quality control and testing, may result in lot failures, product recalls or spoilage. When changes are made to the manufacturing process, the Company may be required to provide pre-clinical and clinical data showing the comparable identity, strength, quality, purity or potency of the products before and after such changes.
•Biologics are frequently costly to manufacture because production ingredients are derived from living animal or plant material, and most biologics cannot be made synthetically. In particular, keeping up with the demand for vaccines may be difficult due to the complexity of producing vaccines.
•The use of biologically derived ingredients can lead to allegations of harm, including infections or allergic reactions, or closure of product facilities due to possible contamination. Any of these events could result in substantial costs.
Product liability insurance for products may be limited, cost prohibitive or unavailable.
As a result of a number of factors, product liability insurance has become less available while the cost has increased significantly. With respect to product liability, the Company self-insures substantially all of its risk, as the availability of commercial insurance has become more restrictive. The Company has evaluated its risks and has determined that the cost of obtaining product liability insurance outweighs the likely benefits of the coverage that is available and, as such, has no insurance for certain product liabilities effective August 1, 2004, including liability for legacy Merck products first sold after that date. The Company will continually assess the most efficient means to address its risk; however, there can be no guarantee that insurance coverage will be obtained or, if obtained, will be sufficient to fully cover product liabilities that may arise.
Cautionary Factors that May Affect Future Results
(Cautionary Statements Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995)
This report and other written reports and oral statements made from time to time by the Company may contain so-called “forward-looking statements,” all of which are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties which may cause results to differ materially from those set forth in the statements. One can identify these forward-looking statements by their use of words such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “plans,” “will,” “estimates,” “forecasts,” “projects” and other words of similar meaning. One can also identify them by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. These statements are likely to address the Company’s growth strategy, financial results, product development, product approvals, product potential, and development programs. One must carefully consider any such statement and should understand that many factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company’s forward-looking statements. These factors include inaccurate assumptions and a broad variety of other risks and uncertainties, including some that are known and some that are not. No forward-looking statement can be guaranteed and actual future results may vary materially. The Company does not assume the obligation to update any forward-looking statement. The Company cautions you not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Although it is not possible to predict or identify all such factors, they may include the following:
•Competition from generic products as the Company’s products, such as Singulair and Maxalt, lose patent protection.
•Increased “brand” competition in therapeutic areas important to the Company’s long-term business performance.
•The difficulties and uncertainties inherent in new product development. The outcome of the lengthy and complex process of new product development is inherently uncertain. A drug candidate can fail at any stage of the process and one or more late-stage product candidates could fail to receive regulatory approval. New product candidates may appear promising in development but fail to reach the market because of efficacy or safety concerns, the inability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals, the difficulty or excessive cost to manufacture and/or the infringement of patents or intellectual property rights of others. Furthermore, the sales of new products may prove to be disappointing and fail to reach anticipated levels.
•Pricing pressures, both in the United States and abroad, including rules and practices of managed care groups, judicial decisions and governmental laws and regulations related to Medicare, Medicaid and health care reform, pharmaceutical reimbursement and pricing in general.
•Changes in government laws and regulations, including laws governing intellectual property, and the enforcement thereof affecting the Company’s business.
•Efficacy or safety concerns with respect to marketed products, whether or not scientifically justified, leading to product recalls, withdrawals or declining sales.
•Significant litigation related to Vioxx and Fosamax.
•Legal factors, including product liability claims, antitrust litigation and governmental investigations, including tax disputes, environmental concerns and patent disputes with branded and generic competitors, any of which could preclude commercialization of products or negatively affect the profitability of existing products.
•Lost market opportunity resulting from delays and uncertainties in the approval process of the FDA and foreign regulatory authorities.
•Increased focus on privacy issues in countries around the world, including the United States and the EU. The legislative and regulatory landscape for privacy and data protection continues to evolve, and there has been an increasing amount of focus on privacy and data protection issues with the potential to affect directly the Company’s business, including recently enacted laws in a majority of states in the United States requiring security breach notification.
•Changes in tax laws including changes related to the taxation of foreign earnings.
•Changes in accounting pronouncements promulgated by standard-setting or regulatory bodies, including the Financial Accounting Standards Board and the SEC, that are adverse to the Company.
•Economic factors over which the Company has no control, including changes in inflation, interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates.
This list should not be considered an exhaustive statement of all potential risks and uncertainties. See “Risk Factors” above.